Jacopo, an excellent post. One thing I already loved in your book was your ability to bring together technological and market trends with a very clear-eyed and pragmatic perspective. This post goes one step beyond with the geopolitical dimension. One question that remains open, in my view, is the following: it seems to me that there is still a wide gap between the existential stakes that dominate the narrative and drive these seemingly unstoppable dynamics, and the actual value delivered by this technology in efficiency gains. If that is the case, I wonder how long this detachment can be sustained. Thanks and kudos for a highly insightful analysis.
many thanks Marco, your appreciation as an economist means a lot to me. I agree that the detachment may not be sustainable for long unless the technology delivers. And yet the definition of "value" will matter a lot. If the OpenAIs and Metas of the world find a way to create any form of market value (even just as better attention lock-in), the growth may still go on for a bit. But more than that: even if they didn't deliver and the market collapsed, once the main providers have key infrastructure, they may be able to survive a potential crash better than anybody else.
Jacopo, an excellent post. One thing I already loved in your book was your ability to bring together technological and market trends with a very clear-eyed and pragmatic perspective. This post goes one step beyond with the geopolitical dimension. One question that remains open, in my view, is the following: it seems to me that there is still a wide gap between the existential stakes that dominate the narrative and drive these seemingly unstoppable dynamics, and the actual value delivered by this technology in efficiency gains. If that is the case, I wonder how long this detachment can be sustained. Thanks and kudos for a highly insightful analysis.
many thanks Marco, your appreciation as an economist means a lot to me. I agree that the detachment may not be sustainable for long unless the technology delivers. And yet the definition of "value" will matter a lot. If the OpenAIs and Metas of the world find a way to create any form of market value (even just as better attention lock-in), the growth may still go on for a bit. But more than that: even if they didn't deliver and the market collapsed, once the main providers have key infrastructure, they may be able to survive a potential crash better than anybody else.
Very true, thanks Jacopo.